WHAT HAVE I DONE WITH MY LIFE???

Read Arthur Luke's answer to I am 45 years old and feel like I have done nothing with my life, what should I do? on Quora

smoot hawley

the tariff act of 1930 exacerbated unemployment and the great depression.

it started a trade war with canada and europe.

football

Losses:

week 1: vikings, steelers

week 2: broncos

week 3: colts, ravens 

week 4: broncos, cowboys, Seahawks

week 5: patriots, cowboys

week 6: 5-0

week 7: redskins

week 8: chargers, colts

week 9: browns, broncos

week 10:

job tips

you don't have to love your job but you also can't hate it

don't stay in one place too long -- change jobs every 2 or 3 years

never interview on a monday or friday

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/upshot/the-economy-is-rigged-and-other-presidential-campaign-myths.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/upshot/the-economy-is-rigged-and-other-presidential-campaign-myths.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0

http://www.wsj.com/articles/five-big-truths-about-trade-1461280205

http://www.wsj.com/articles/five-big-truths-about-trade-1461280205

http://andirog.blogspot.com/2013/02/lending-club-loans-months-of-payment.html

http://andirog.blogspot.com/2013/02/lending-club-loans-months-of-payment.html

Breaking Bad business school

from the economist magazine

high growth businesses come from unexpected places, what clayton christensen calls 'marginal lens'

1. huge ambition: think big
2. product obsession: this is key
3. partnerships/ alliances/ distribution

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21586801-best-show-television-also-first-rate-primer-business-breaking-bad-school

TAXING EXTERNALITIES:
CONGESTION PRICING

TAX DEDUCTIONS:
MORTGAGE INTEREST

FREE TRADE


WINNERS AND LOSERS VS MAKE OVERALL PIE BIGGER

march madness

seeds 10 11 12...

committee does poor job of seeding 5,6,7 seeds...

seeds 8 and 9 are toss up

villanova had a great road record and non-conference record

JON LEVIN - ECONOMISTS ARE CORRECT ABOUT THESE ISSUES

Read Jon Levin's answer to What economic policies have a generally accepted "correct" treatment by economists but are still debated among politicians and voters? on Quora

DAILY HABITS

Read Advita Bihani's answer to What are things I should do every day to have a good life? on Quora

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2015/09/twelve-reasons-to-like-jebs-tax-plan.html

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2015/09/twelve-reasons-to-like-jebs-tax-plan.html

WHAT WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS?

LOOK AT ROAD RECORD

 LOOK AT NON CONFERENCE RECORD

 LOOK AT NON DIVISION RECORD

 LOOK AT DEFENSE

negative trade balance in u.s.

Read Joseph Wang's answer to Why is the USA so rich if its trade balance is negative? on Quora

prosper update

july 2: 12.69%
june 2: 12.01%
may 1: 11.95%

Switch

Good book about how to effect change 

the wisdom of free trade

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/26/upshot/economists-actually-agree-on-this-point-the-wisdom-of-free-trade.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

the last gasp of the charlatan is always that something is 'strategic'

see title

reducing the size of the federal government

there should be four departments:

state
defense
justice
treasury

the rest should be eliminated

why i favor repeal of the estate tax

http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/mankiw/files/npc.pdf

greg mankiw

The estate tax unfairly punishes frugality, undermines economic growth, reduces real wages, and raises little, if any, federal revenue

Swim Daily, Jessica Gomes and Jessica Perez

THE ECONOMY'S NEW CLOTHES: Milton Friedman on the New Econom

TAKE IT TO THE LIMITS: Milton Friedman on Libertarianism

clothes make the man

suit

uniform

red = hot

glasses = smarter but less attractive

http://time.com/3815449/science-dress-for-success

http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2012/02/does-what-you-wear-affect-how-you-act/

how to be a functional psychopath

1. focus on the positive and just do it

2. live in the moment

3. separate emotion from behavior and vice versa

Flat tax

Flat tax should be 19 percent 

Or highest tax bracket should be 25 percent 

Or even better is to abolish the income tax and replace it with a flat vat or consumption tax

State of public education

25 percent of students do not finish high school 

Government monopoly in public education 

Teachers unions

Promote education 

Promote schooling not schools or buildings 

Subsidize students not the schools

Take food stamps 

Do you subsidize the grocery stores or the consumers?

Private sector is always cheaper and more efficient than government 

There are no free lunches 

Health care

Most illnesses are self imposed

Risk premium 

Redistribution of wealth 

Very high deductible 

10,000 or ten percent of income whichever is lower

Social responsibility has eroded over time 

Administrative costs have increased 

New regulations have increased costs

Medical savings accounts

Why is it so hard to get one in the U.S.?

Obama care discourages them

We have retirement plans 

Everyone is eligible 

Cloud nine

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21648685-cloud-computing-prices-keep-falling-whole-it-business-will-change-cheap-convenient

1144 arapahoe street 90006

 http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1144-Arapahoe-St_Los-Angeles_CA_90006_M17836-00456

charming vs tedious

oscar wilde:

it is absurd to divide people into good and bad.
people are either charming or tedious.

gravity payments: minimum salary is 70k

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/14/news/companies/ceo-pay-cuts-pay-increases/

Four mistakes to avoid when analyzing data

https://medium.com/@plotlygraphs/four-mistakes-to-avoid-if-you-re-analyzing-data-f8ccb348738

How to spend your money

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-doesnt-buy-you-happiness-youre-spending-right-alex-edmans?trk=li_li_corp_alexedmans_happiness

the next big ides in fin tech by charles moldow and foundation capital

https://medium.com/@FoundationCap/the-next-big-ideas-in-financial-technology-951c018822cf

Lending home

First lending club

Now lending home 

https://www.lendinghome.com/invest

https://teamtreehouse.com

tree house

casual fridays are no work fridays

https://teamtreehouse.com

amazon machine learning

https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/amazon-machine-learning-make-data-driven-decisions-at-scale/

the paradoxes of organizations

https://medium.com/principles-of-agility/the-paradoxes-of-organization-7e468956ddf8

attractive prison

when you ask for help, you get more work to do

when things start to get better, they seem to get worse

when things start to get worse, they seem to get better

the more you do, the less you can do

the reward for doing good work is more work

tools designed to increase productivity decrease productivity

attempts to increase control decrease control

keeping yourself in business can put you out of business

the more important the decision, the less informed the decision maker will be

attempting to solve a problem can make it worse

the solution to many problems is an opposite problem

the bigger things are harder to see

just because something is true doesn't mean the opposite is not true

everything depends

zenefits - scaling lessons from fast growing saas company ever

https://medium.com/@charlierguo/scaling-lessons-from-the-fastest-growing-saas-company-ever-a6e077653d21


create automated processes one step at a time

when dealing with established industries, expect things that don't scale

sometimes you have to sacrifice scalability and product to get an edge

most people are caught off guard by exponential growth

bottlenecks can come from surprising places

premature optimization is still the root of all evil

intro to unix

http://www.oliverelliott.org/article/computing/tut_unix/11/

udacity machine learning class

https://www.udacity.com/course/viewer#!/c-ud120/l-2258728540/e-2438278589/m-3055848543

https://dataquest.io

good site for learning data analysis and python

https://dataquest.io

formstack

https://www.formstack.com/how

snowflake reinventing the data warehouse

http://snowflake.net/about/

redshift sort key and dist key

https://www.periscope.io/blog/double-your-redshift-performance-with-the-right-sortkeys-and-distkeys.html


you can create multi key sort

postgresql: generate series

https://www.periscope.io/blog/use-generate-series-to-get-continuous-results.html

single event tables and join for speed

https://www.periscope.io/blog/single-event-tables-common-analysis-queries.html

best days to apply for a job are monday and tuesday

wednesday may be ok

thursday may be ok

friday should be obvious

saturday should be obvious

sunday is not a good day because it will get lost in the monday morning inbox

genetic algorithm

http://blog.dmpatierno.com/post/3161338411/lending-club-genetic-algorithm

twitch may be valuable for amazon

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3062166-twitch-could-prove-to-be-very-valuable-for-amazon?ifp=0

amazon's version of youtube?

forbes interview with lending club ceo

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeanbaptiste/2015/04/01/exclusive-interview-lending-club-ceo-plans-expansion-into-car-loans-mortgages/

transcript or video if you don't want to read

i don't know what takes more effort, listening or reading

the new mix it up men's style

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-mixed-up-mens-style-1427306455

dressy casual and athletic all at once

Adam Berger

He described my resume as 

E commerce experience 

Small company experience 

Creative visual thinker

Well read

How to conserve water efficiently

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2007/02/how-to-conserve-water-efficiently-becker.html

Rate of re utilization 

Under pricing 

Farmers consume most 

3 paths to financial freedom

http://retireby40.org/3-paths-financial-freedom/

1. make more money
2. spend less
3. create something

do one two or all of the above

A better tax system

http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2011/08/buffett-and-a-better-tax-system-becker.html

Count distinct first. Last step is join

Periscope 

https://periscope.io/blog/use-subqueries-to-count-distinct-50x-faster.html

Use sub queries 

Messenger wars

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/03/messaging-apps?fsrc=scn/tw/te/dc/ed/whatsup

oregon and washington state

why doesn't california get water from oregon and washington state?

i assume our neighbors up north have too much water while california suffers from a drought.

doesn't this seem like a win win win situation?

productivity killers

what are the 3 most important things you have to do right now?

1. checking email constantly

2. weekly status meetings

3. working late

4. mis-managing to do list

5. drinking too much coffee

6. eating lunch at desk

7 awesome sports betting tips: Managing your bankroll

Key numbers you must know when betting NFL over/unders

Power of the Market - The Pencil

Milton Friedman - Socialized Medicine

Milton Friedman - Health Care in a Free Market

duke beats wisconsin

how did duke win?

5 titles for coach k

3 in indianapolis
2 in minneapolis

1991
1992
2001
2010
2015

wisconsin beat unbeaten kentucky

they had the lead 48-39

duke won 68-63

the freshmen guards killed wisconsin

sam dekker had an off night

happy easter

kentucky lost
perfect season is over
38-1

wisconsin is a tough opponent

they play duke on monday

i hope wisconsin wins but i think duke will win

coack k already has 4 titles

Milton Friedman

march 31 2015

paid rent

almost done packing for my staycation in costa mesa

westin south coast plaza using starwood points, finally

easter is sunday - have to visit my parents

mad men returns on sunday for the 1st of its final 7 episodes

make sure to pack some medication for anxiety

buy club soda for tonight and my trip

why work?

1. pay bills
2. appreciate unemployment!

minds are overrated
just don't lose your nerve

a friend of mine lost his mother to cancer last year.
he is still grieving.
i told him it's ok to be in mourning.
don't rush the grieving process.
you may be in mourning for the rest of your life and that's ok.

also, watch six feet under

yesterday was my brother's birthday
also, kentucky escaped against notre dame
in 1992 duke escaped against kentucky
len elmore called both games
in 1992 with verne lundquist on cbs, the spectrum in philadelphia
in 2015 with chris webber and brian anderson on tbs

reminder to myself: after job offer, apply for home equity line of credit

coach k at duke ties wooden with 12 final fours

the most tournament wins:
kentucky
north carolina
duke

tom izzo has 7 final fours

kentucky under calipari has reached final four in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015

wisconsin has reached final four 2 straight years, beating arizona twice in elite eight

remember when bo ryan was not a tournament coach?

life may not be perfect but your outfit can be

best quote of the day

never interview on a monday or friday

it's a sham interview

why would anyone want to interview on a friday?

i know from personal experience that friday interviews were bullshit

i got rooney ruled

never interview on a friday

if someone suggests a friday interview, tell them that you are no longer interested in the job

football playoffs january 11

big upset of the day was colts smothering broncos.

broncos could not get any first downs in the 2nd half.

scored td in first quarter. none the rest of the game.

lots of misses by peyton manning.
a couple drops by d thomas.

packers got lucky against cowboys.
dez bryant almost made a great catch on 4th and 2.
overturned on replay.

cowboys covered
colts covered and won

both games went under.

seattle blew out carolina.

patriots escaped against ravens in a high scoring affair.

think like a freak

Some of the steps toward thinking like a Freak:

• First, put away your moral compass—because it’s hard to see a problem clearly if you’ve already decided what to do about it.
• Learn to say “I don’t know”—for until you can admit what you don’t yet know, it’s virtually impossible to learn what you need to.
• Think like a child—because you’ll come up with better ideas and ask better questions.
• Take a master class in incentives—because for better or worse, incentives rule our world.
• Learn to persuade people who don’t want to be persuaded—because being right is rarely enough to carry the day.
• Learn to appreciate the upside of quitting—because you can’t solve tomorrow’s problem if you aren’t willing to abandon today’s dud.

IDEAS: small, big or

great ideas come in three sizes:

small

big

transformative

dumb ideas are dumb regardless of size.

if your idea is dumb, the smaller the better.

LITTLE BETS

how breakthrough ideas emerge from small discoveries

author is peter sims

wiseman found that lucky people tend to be open to opportunities or insights that come along spontaneously, whereas unlucky people tend to be creatures of routine, fixated on certain specific outcomes


praising ability alone reduces persistence, while praising effort or the processes a person goes through to learn leads to growth mind set behaviors.


those favoring a growth mind set believe that intelligence and abilities can be grown through effort, and tend to view failures or setbacks as opportunities for growth. they have a desire to constantly challenge and stretch themselves.


affordable loss principle: how much can you afford to lose?
seasoned entrepreneurs will tend to determine in advance what they are willing to lose, rather than calculating expected gains.


illusion of rationality:
ideas or assumptions seem logical in a plan, spreadsheet, power point or memo, yet they haven't been validated on the ground or in the real world


ned barnholdt: a lot of our most successful ideas came from the bottom up, by really understanding user needs

when much is known, procedural planning approaches work.
when much is unknown, they do not.
procedural planning is opposite of improvisation.

who is larry summers?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Summers

highlights:

economic advisor to obama
secretary of treasury under clinton
president of harvard
chief economist at world bank

board director at lending club

stupidity and lack of knowledge

most mistakes occur because of:

stupidity and/or
ignorance

insightful quotes

what you know, they will never know and what they know, you can learn.

for the last time, incentives matter!

origin of the word amok:
lonely men, suffering from loss of love, money and/or face (respect).

sunlight is the best disinfectant

look for the higher payoff strategy

launch fast and iterate

keys to maximizing earnings in the work place:
intelligence,
education,
human capital,
punctuality
and ability to handle criticism

each day management presents dozens of opportunities to do something dumb.
stellar managers simply resist the temptation.

smart people should resist the temptation to be too clever by half
and
should absolutely resist the temptation to make clever investments which they do not understand 100%

don't try to be brilliant.
focus on not being stupid.

i work to put food in the fridge

i need to pay for food, shelter and entertainment.

why can't people be honest about work and money?

....

pretending to add value


http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/11/the-art-of-not-working-at-work/382121/?single_page=true

always pick the choice that scares you a little

http://blog.codinghorror.com/10-years-of-coding-horror/

http://blog.codinghorror.com/how-to-achieve-ultimate-blog-success-in-one-easy-step/

the status quo is too easy

questions to ask yourself before accepting job offer

1. is the company growing?

2. is your supervisor competent? nice?

3. are your coworkers competent? nice?

week 9 post mortem

chargers were throttled by dolphins 37-0 in miami

zero points
zero red zone plays

why was the offense so ineffective?
offensive line

defense is also horrible especially on 3rd down and in red zone

3 game losing streak
1-3 last 4 games

3-1
2-2
0-1

patriots look like the best team right now but 8 weeks left in the season

peyton manning continues to struggle in foxborough

patriots defense did a great job neutralizing broncos offense especially on 3rd and 4th down

the game was over in the 2nd quarter

anatomy of a company (aka how to kill a business)

1. do not understand business model

2. lack of mobile strategy

3. operational inefficiency

4. ignore clients

5. ignore employees

job vs. career vs. calling

job = pay the bills

career = increasingly better work 

calling = important part of your life and identity

source: cal newport

billion dollar lessons - book review

above average

first half of book was interesting, slightly repetitive

second half of the book was more prescriptive, less interesting and more repetitive

don't buy it

monday morning qb - october 13 2014

lions defense looks good

giants look terrible

browns look good

steelers offense is struggling

dolphins blew game against packers with poor situational defense with 20 seconds left to play

chargers defense looked shaky against raiders.
raiders could have won their first game

rams were controlling game against 49ers, 14-3, right before halftime but 49ers scored on a deep pass td before halftime. bad defense by the rams, playing man to man in that situation. changed the game. 49ers took control in the 2nd half.

company valuation and future growth

how do you determine the value of a company?

i asked my friend 

he replied: future growth

my response: 

how do you know how much the company will grow in the future?

who can predict the future?

no one that i know

is it a growth industry?

my response: 

how do you know if something is a growth industry?

can you take market share or invent something new to generate growth?

my response: 

two different things

gaining market share is hard

inventing something people will use or buy is hard

the industry drives the innovation to a degree
does the industry have innovation to offer?
can the innovation make a material difference or just a minor contribution?
my response:
i don't know if industry drives innovation
people innovate, not industry
this is an assumption people will disagree about

in most cases industry have some innovation to offer, most of it minor

iPhones do not grow on trees

neither does innovative thinking

future valuation is based on a lot of optimistic assumptions

technology = scale
future growth depends on technology? sounds reasonable to me

schumpeter, the look of a leader

typical ceo is

at least 6 feet tall

deep voice

good posture

touch of grey hair (not bald)

fit for his age

negatives:

overweight

uptalk

power poses

amy cuddy ted talk

executive presence

sylvia anne hewlett

lower register of your voice

eliminate uptalk

eye contact during presentation

work out regularly

oscar wilde: only shallow people who do not judge by appearances

schumpeter: decluttering the company

for a person or a company

a manager's job is to facilitate 

yet most managers do the exact opposite 

decluttering the company 

relentless fight against bureaucracy

bulging inbox

endless meetings

long list of objectives

forms of clutter: 

1. organizational complexity

2. meetings

3. emails

clutter hurts morale and productivity

most valuable company resource = time of employees

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21610237-businesses-must-fight-relentless-battle-against-bureaucracy-decluttering-company

billion dollar lessons (kindle)

currently reading billion dollar lessons

story about failed mergers and acquisitions

so far, the book is disappointing
topic is interesting but the writing is dry and repetitive

sounds like 2 management consultants writing a book

interesting case studies:
kodak ignores digital cameras from 1981 until it died

how many people are using your product?

https://medium.com/@joshelman/the-only-metric-that-matters-ab24a585b5ea

the big picture

if you focus on too many details, you lose sight of the bigger picture

ignore mobile

treat tablet like desktop

idiot proof business

you should only buy a business any idiot can run because one day an idiot will be running (vs ruining) it

advertising (fight club)

advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need.